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June 22, 2016

Speaking at the JLL Real Views Leaders Forum in Venice, Ian Goldin, professor of globalisation and development at the Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, said Britain, especially London, would become less competitive if voters opt to leave the European Union. Services such as healthcare would suffer and foreign talent would head for other cities on the continent.

Watch the video below to hear Professor Goldin’s views on the EU membership referendum. And read on for the transcript.

JLL: What do you think the impact of Britain leaving the EU would be on the UK, especially London?

 On the broader impact…
Goldin: “I think the people that are supporting Brexit perhaps haven’t thought through all the implications and there’s not a single study which has shown that this is good for the UK economy.

“I haven’t seen one and none of the authorities think it is and certainly none of the economists I speak to think it is, but it’s also very bad for Europe. The UK is a very good force within Europe to make Europe more effective – Europe’s got lots and lots of problems which need to be fixed but it’ll take much longer to fix them if we’re not there. Some of these problems are very big serious problems for us; like what’s happening with terrorism; like what’s happening with climate change. So Europe needs to be more effective in managing these and Britain certainly can’t do it on its own, and it’s not going to do it with the US because our community is Europe. So I think it’s going to be very bad in many respects for economic growth but also for political uncertainty and for risks.

On services and foreign talent…
Goldin: “But even some things that people feel are problems coming from foreigners will be worse. For example, the National Health Service and the hospitals in London – can we imagine them with less foreign doctors and foreign nurses and foreign cleaners? They’ll become more expensive, the waiting lists will grow longer and far from foreigners being the cause of the problem in these systems they are actually a major part of the solution that keep these systems running. So we’ll find that in many walks of life, including in our health systems for example, things suddenly get a lot worse, not better.

On London & European city investment…
Goldin: “And of course we’ll find that the attractiveness of London, because it’s such an incredible cosmopolitan place with a range of restaurants, services, industries etc, decreases. And it is a competitive world, people will go somewhere else, they’ll go to Paris, they’ll go to Berlin, they’ll go to other places which will become those hubs.

Richard Bloxam
Head of EMEA Capital Markets

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